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Feb 17, 20:26
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Robots in myriad forms will be increasingly productive going forward, but they’re not magic.
They require energy and materials, and they experience wear and tear and need replacing over time, especially in harsh environments. https://t.co/XeVf2i436U
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Feb 17, 14:41
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The Matrix Reloaded, if it was made today. https://t.co/qBzMkkfiAx
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Feb 17, 03:40
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https://t.co/VDNWIYzvL8
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Feb 15, 14:14
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https://t.co/dVs21xZI7g https://t.co/cp3vcRUZV3
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Feb 13, 01:13
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Cultures have many differing views of morality, but all around the world and for thousands of years, being truthful is arguably the most common one.
A culture cannot long persist on falsities. On open lying.
This cycle ends only when truth becomes principal currency again.
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Feb 13, 00:35
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Three companies make nearly all of the RAM in the world and two of them are in Korea.
It's Korea's turn to be like: https://t.co/1GBjLMiCvr
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Feb 12, 04:36
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They just differ on where government should be big.
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Feb 12, 04:34
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The reason big government exists is because most people are in favor of big government.
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Feb 12, 01:07
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https://t.co/VOxNcBA08i https://t.co/l6ndfauSYk
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Feb 11, 19:53
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https://t.co/xVBazDs6eZ https://t.co/oqQC3DHuqG
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Feb 10, 22:51
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Imagine being one of the analysts that keeps saying China will collapse soon.
Then the U.S. Treasury Secretary comes out saying hopefully the IMF and G7 can help deal with China’s $1 trillion trade surplus, after a year of saying tariffs would crush them. https://t.co/ORuPncs69I
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Feb 10, 22:43
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In a context where they could record this as often as they want, and still end up with this, speaks volumes.
Jesus Christ.
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Feb 10, 22:25
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The US tariffed a lot of countries, then tried to soften them to build a coalition vs China, which failed. China's the largest global trading partner.
Then we doubled-down on most of those countries again while softening toward China, since China holds pretty strong cards. https://t.co/Elnc0l2pUS
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Feb 10, 22:20
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https://t.co/BO3KDhYsyL
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Feb 10, 22:19
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This comes off like a hostage video.
China's exports are currently at an all-time high. https://t.co/umNcKTlnpt
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Feb 08, 18:48
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My public February newsletter is out now, and focuses on the Fed's shift toward balance sheet expansion, Japan's rising bond yields, and precious metals volatility.
Enjoy:
https://t.co/B87EYBUp8u https://t.co/oTr9OUvm1w
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Feb 08, 00:44
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I’m so out of touch with modern music that I had to google this. https://t.co/fvK6D0PQls
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Feb 08, 00:33
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“When I’m Gone”, another banger
https://t.co/RwO9MQx9d8
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Feb 07, 20:25
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For whatever reason, Kryptonite was my favorite song as a teen.
RIP Brad Arnold.
https://t.co/dkIYxTBeiV https://t.co/DLByYyBOQG
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Feb 07, 14:25
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It would good to see a more streamlined Fed. Fewer press conferences, scrapping dot plots, etc.
It’s hard to make the case that the Fed’s guidance has been a net positive, though maybe others see it differently. https://t.co/JYUfrc1bdJ
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Feb 06, 23:05
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Warsh is unlikely to facilitate material quantitative tightening, but to the unlikely extent that he and the rest of the Fed board indeed try that route, it would be offset by additional liquidity from regulatory-loosening commercial bank unlocks. https://t.co/ao5fgGftxE
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Feb 06, 16:56
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The rise of social media, along with the breakdown of the economic social contract.
Indoors, eating processed food, on a screen, pulled by algorithms into rage bait, while top-heavy demographics provide economic headwinds previously unheard of. https://t.co/DGI7lO18dS
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Feb 06, 02:03
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My question for this call appears shortly after the 92 minute mark on their stream replay. This time it focuses on STRC:
https://t.co/aqJFhMqXXV
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 05, 21:34
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When I participated on their earnings call during the bull market six months ago, I asked a bearish question about stress testing for downside scenarios.
Given the carnage today, would you ask another bearish question, or go the contrarian route and flip positive this time? 🤔 https://t.co/Qm9KTpGqjB https://t.co/R8laS7c4BA
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Feb 04, 22:21
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“I laughted, but”
::eleven paragraphs of text:: https://t.co/mKHx8Ve69N https://t.co/QlA2zCelmi
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 04, 21:47
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All of Wall St: https://t.co/OZi24GEEvm https://t.co/Nr6GmfMAXK
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Feb 04, 15:49
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During periods of fiscal dominance or EM-style economic issues, things tend to grind on longer than people expect, and it’s often not the unemployment rate where the pain shows up. https://t.co/lEUo3Ky9Ly
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 03, 00:37
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Vibes-based rate setting. https://t.co/MmWD20ue4v https://t.co/Zl3ObcgHuu
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Batch analyzed (5 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 01, 23:11
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The evolution of everyone on financial twitter for 6+ years. https://t.co/jmwubCuCOJ
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 01, 00:36
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The Epstein stuff is so bad that it basically gave all conspiracy theorists a pass for the next couple decades.
They can say the craziest stuff and you have to be like, “yeah, maybe.” https://t.co/f6Wc8R6tXE
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 30, 19:35
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https://t.co/uFwtBCYMft
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Jan 30, 00:36
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Well then. https://t.co/DfAq3wvxrf
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 29, 16:34
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When things trade like a memecoin to the upside, they are also at risk of doing so to the downside. https://t.co/AkZiVnYnDr
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 29, 15:00
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Sometimes I have a dream about a totally normal thing. Like walking around in a grocery store, shopping. Or having a normal conversation with someone.
Anyone else? https://t.co/6Z7i0tIxzR
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 28, 16:14
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Mood when sitting down to write a fresh new public newsletter issue. https://t.co/6VvBjO2crt
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 27, 21:55
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A breakdown in the dollar, and seems pretty intentional.
Many people will sensationalize it but it’s still in its longer range, for now.
Sub-90 gets interesting. https://t.co/bOlio4fl8k
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 27, 19:52
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People often underestimate how good the technology of a human body is.
-A supercomputer that runs on less power than a lightbulb.
-Housed within a mobile, mostly self-healing chassis. https://t.co/ae0OSENbgB
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 27, 15:24
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Lesson in that. https://t.co/zb7C11DK2a
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 26, 23:08
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Every category on that list increased in price less than money supply per capita since the year 2000.
They all got more efficient (the blue lines more-so than the red lines), but money printing offset all of them to various degrees. https://t.co/H6kgKUH22a
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 26, 23:02
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Unfortunately it’s more fundamental than that.
Almost all the stuff on the bottom went down in cost due to increased automation and offshoring.
Meanwhile, the stuff on top is domestic labor intensive. https://t.co/03OjdeNo1R
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 26, 21:32
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The 30-minute video version of Broken Money is a really accessible overview of money and its history:
https://t.co/ctSK0Eif4g https://t.co/Prjt6PEvu3
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 26, 00:12
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It never made sense and was basically a meme.
A 110-mile long mega-structure in the desert housing 9 million people? https://t.co/9DnGxZUIGs https://t.co/RCgbbEmh2P
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 25, 14:17
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Btw if anyone wants more context of why it didn’t work, we laid it out ahead of time here:
https://t.co/y9sZ5d7iqY
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 25, 14:05
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https://t.co/2J5gw8UqGQ
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 25, 13:56
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The train was so unstoppable that one cannot even see a small blip where DOGE tried to slow down spending.
Like it never happened. https://t.co/UciMQl1rdo
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 24, 23:55
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https://t.co/Y1LS0bc6zn
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 22, 22:48
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Heath any day of the week. https://t.co/e4clRdWWRL
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 22, 20:51
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One of the best multi-year calls out there has been @LukeGromen predicting a much higher gold-to-oil ratio.
Both in terms of specificity (not just "commodity X go higher" but "commodity X dramatically reprices vs commodity Y") and in terms of persistence (repeated conviction). https://t.co/9cVdXE9Wea
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 21, 21:13
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Meanwhile, actual manufacturing jobs peaked and rolled over back in 2022. And with ever-advancing automation, it’s hard to imagine that trend ever turning around. https://t.co/J6fQCZzioq
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 21, 21:13
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Constructing spending on manufacturing facilities went up when they threw money at it, and rolled over when they threw taxes at it. https://t.co/IQEOSWJ8sb
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 21, 02:03
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https://t.co/De2QqNAmT3 https://t.co/PpCu3vaM4W
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 20, 19:27
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The hockey stick growth in Chinese auto exports continues to be insane. https://t.co/d4vHRvq1Lq
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 20, 15:05
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https://t.co/Wfz4YDQxkx https://t.co/xzaHdNROVT
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 20, 14:44
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A bit of a capital flight morning, with the dollar down, stocks down, and bonds down (yields up).
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 18, 16:54
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It's like crawling out of Plato's cave with greater and greater clarity, but once you reach the very end, that's all fake, too.
Somewhere in the middle of crawling out was peak knowledge, not the end. https://t.co/zL0szbIwEU
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 18, 16:50
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The period of pre-AI videos was this nice golden age of evidence for things, connecting us together in a shared, objective world.
As videos become effortlessly fakable, bit puts its back into a sort of communication dark age. https://t.co/F9znuUoyLL https://t.co/GYjKl9G11l
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 18, 15:57
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https://t.co/MI9NGWD4KV https://t.co/kCjyeTdaLP
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 22:13
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Ben is basically correct for his field unless or until this type of structural issue improves, which has been flat for a while:
https://t.co/0utyh5H3UP
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 22:10
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People who write and focus on writing have seen an obvious plateau for a year or two.
People who focus on other metrics point toward clear improvement.
There’s a mix of both to some extent (e.g. coding taking off), but the fact that ChatGPT is shifting toward ads is notable. https://t.co/TyxVKBwGEc
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 20:11
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My promise to my followers is that, eventually, I will annoy you. Me and you will disagree at times.
But that's because I treat you as intelligent adults. That's the following I cultivate. I will honestly tell you as I see it, and I welcome those who seek that out.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 20:11
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Every financial-related account makes plenty of mistakes, me included.
But what you want to look for are accounts that have specialized expertise, that aren't prone to sensationalism, that don't link ideology to investments, and that don't assume you're of short memory.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 20:11
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A lot of folks try to drum up short-term engagement by being sensationalist at the cost of long-run accuracy, banking on the idea that readers have short memories.
If you're following macro folks, make sure they tell you sometimes that things *won't* blow up. https://t.co/Q1iV0fshdy https://t.co/BdzQ9QjnVE
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 20:11
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Beyond that, some macro accounts don't actually understand financial plumbing. They believe their own sensationalism. They're as scared/excited as they try to make you be.
Macro became popular, since this is a macro-heavy decade, and so for many it's become like pro-wrestling.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 00:02
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The idea of changing around movie craft to accommodate viewer distraction is so depressing. https://t.co/oDXCtThP0J
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 16, 13:32
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Going to start using this whenever I fall behind on emails and DMs. https://t.co/nEJEs24kZr
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 16, 03:00
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“I’ll take things that were completely obvious ahead of time for $500, Alex.”
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 16, 02:57
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https://t.co/ELGHGS4n5m https://t.co/IaoPiorKkA
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 14, 21:00
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https://t.co/pKKZ5RfdTv
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 14, 17:00
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As an update, repo activity has chilled out for a bit. The last sizable tapping of the repo facility was Jan 2. https://t.co/lKfZZY4awn
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 14, 16:47
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https://t.co/iVONcXv9qU https://t.co/7haEw9hZKz
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 12, 01:39
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Pretty much the most direct clash between the Fed and the Executive Branch since 1951.
The "2020s = 1940s" thesis still on track.
https://t.co/a0PbU8sppA
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 12, 00:55
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Whoa. https://t.co/JcNTlxWr1N
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 11, 22:46
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And people usually don’t think far enough ahead to realize any power you give current government, future government will have as well.
Want to give Trump a power? Then make sure you’re cool with AOC potentially having it one day, too. And vice versa. https://t.co/JgYH4KhQ3P
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 11, 22:46
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Of course though, the problem with making rules about frequent/professional protestors practicing their first amendment right in a public square, is to even identify them you basically have to track all protestors and protest activity. https://t.co/daoaRkY36A https://t.co/kZ2LtctUjP
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 08, 01:47
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Analysts that claim the train will stop in the next year: https://t.co/gRLeGWe3eD
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 08, 01:44
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The end of the beginning, because nothing stops this train.
(But more seriously, network effects are a big deal and last longer than anyone thinks. They are rarely factored into sensational analysis such as this.) https://t.co/5UMMZJZPQM
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 07, 22:53
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That’s a whole lot of words to say nothing stops this train. https://t.co/MitVhMMCxN
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 07, 20:06
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Looks great. 👍 https://t.co/habDa6BW4r
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 03, 14:39
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Heck of a morning to sleep in.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 31, 23:30
|
-No, the Treasury did not print another $105B today.
-No, these numbers aren't related to banks facing a crisis on Dec 31st.
-No, hyperinflation is not imminent.
Thank you for your attention on these matters.
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Batch analyzed (8 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 31, 23:30
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Both repo and reverse repo operations were high today, because it's end of year window dressing.
Some financial institutions asked the Fed for liquidity, and others asked the Fed to take their extra liquidity. The net was tiny.
Liquidity is tight and heterogenous. Not a crisis. https://t.co/e2RMhFJ8EH
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Batch analyzed (8 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 31, 22:53
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-When their thing is down, they complain of manipulation. Yet, manipulators are market participants. Oh you’re an analyst? Analyze better, then.
-When their thing is up, it’s all good now, nature is healing. There is no bubble, this is the new normal! Just keep buying.
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Batch analyzed (8 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 31, 22:47
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I don’t know who needs to know this, but you can actually just ignore people who constantly complain about manipulated markets.
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Batch analyzed (8 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 31, 22:31
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My teenage self read Buffett, learned from Buffett, and was inspired by Buffett.
My 20s and 30s self had to separate from Buffett, disagree with Buffett, and pick other things than Buffett, and that was hard.
It was a process. He was a strong foundation to learn from. https://t.co/CmOZNSuG5B
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Batch analyzed (8 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 31, 22:25
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Two facts about Buffett are true at the same time:
-Buffett brilliantly combined insurance (ie super cheap leverage) and quality value stock selection to dominate the 20th century. Absolutely devastatingly good returns.
-Buffett underperformed gold in the 21st century. https://t.co/w4Xh1jNzbX https://t.co/FWcD5R8WFO
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Batch analyzed (8 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Dec 31, 14:12
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https://t.co/7YpBqeEYli
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Dec 31, 14:08
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The Fed’s rep activity is getting a lot of attention lately, but that’s mainly because reserves are still pretty tight. And today is end of year window dressing.
Instead of looking for fireworks in the banks today, go watch fireworks outside.
🥳🥂
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Dec 29, 17:12
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The annual Stone Ridge letter is out. Excellent as always!
https://t.co/3shvDyR2qg
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Dec 26, 20:25
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And yet people keep talking about it.
I dropped off after season 2 in 2017. Wasn’t super engaged. Should I get back into it or no? https://t.co/G2MzWIsrxV
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Dec 26, 19:13
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https://t.co/aiSafSH0ot
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Dec 26, 19:11
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https://t.co/5v7MsWksfb https://t.co/Zob0YuSxZJ
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Dec 26, 19:09
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When your long-suffering underperforming platinum position finally works out all at once. https://t.co/enFCuPK8Du
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Dec 24, 23:54
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Merry Christmas to all, and to all a goodnight! 🎄
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Dec 24, 02:07
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The 1970s and 1980s had some wild murder rates. https://t.co/OEyFn5P0I3
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Dec 24, 01:22
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On the bright side, we’ll get years of new memes about the next Fed chair. https://t.co/LzGE1JqogG
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Dec 24, 00:58
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What is your most important factor in liking a novel?
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Dec 24, 00:36
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He was all over Epstein and then it just abruptly shut off. https://t.co/EE6KTuvHBm
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Dec 23, 23:26
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I know plenty of honest billionaires.
They tend to remain private and focus on business. https://t.co/PW6zrLhL79
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Dec 23, 23:23
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The funny thing is, I support his pay package issues which were in the news lately (they were fairly agreed upon) and I'm a fan of SpaceX (good stuff).
But my broad critique over the years is that Elon isn't an honest person.
So much is manufactured and curated. It's obvious.
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Dec 23, 23:03
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Elon posted a lot about Epstein until summer 2025 and then abruptly stopped, cold turkey, despite all the news since then.
Weird. 🤷♀️ https://t.co/iaEgCzzETp
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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